Saint Anselm College poll puts Kelly Ayotte three points ahead of Joyce Craig

GOFFSTOWN, N.H. – A recent survey conducted by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SACSC) at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIOP) shows Republican Kelly Ayotte with a slight advantage as she enters the general election. The former U.S. Senator leads Democratic candidate and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig by 3 points, with 46% to Craig’s 43%. Both candidates have seen declines in popularity following negative primary campaigns, with Ayotte holding a 45%-50% favorability and Craig at 37%-36%.

The poll also reveals that the Democratic Party maintains its lead in the generic ballot, with 49% of likely New Hampshire voters favoring a generic Democrat, compared to 44% for a Republican—a slight increase from August’s 48%-45% margin.

Democratic candidates in New Hampshire’s Congressional races are starting strong. In the 1st Congressional District, incumbent Chris Pappas leads Republican Russell Prescott by 12 points (50%-38%), while in the 2nd District, Democratic newcomer Maggie Goodlander holds an 11-point lead over Republican Lily Tang Williams (49%-38%).

Pappas, a three-term Democratic Congressman, has a strong favorability rating of 52%-39%, the highest of any federal candidate on the ballot. His challenger, Prescott, has a favorability rating of 22%-13%. In the 2nd District, Goodlander enjoys a 38%-27% favorable image, while Tang Williams holds a 28%-22% rating.

Neil Levesque, executive director of the NH Institute of Politics, commented on the results, stating, “With the gubernatorial and Congressional nominees now set, Democrats are in a strong position to retain both House seats. The race to replace retiring Governor Chris Sununu is starting off close and will likely remain competitive, with significant attention and resources expected as both parties vie for control of the state’s top office.”

Full Results  

These results are from a Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll based on online surveys of 2241 New Hampshire likely voters.  Surveys were collected between September 11 and 12, 2024, from cell phone users randomly drawn from a sample of registered voters reflecting the demographic and partisan characteristics of the voting population. Names were presented in random order for the favorability and ballot tests. The survey has an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 2.1% with a confidence interval of 95%; the margin of sampling error for questions specific to congressional districts is +/- 2.9%. The data are weighted for age, gender, geography, and education based on a voter demographic model derived from historical voting patterns, but are not weighted by party registration or party identification.

Founded in 2001, the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College provides a nonpartisan forum for discussion and debate. It seeks to develop programming, and to foster scholarship and dialogue, encompassing a diverse range of political topics, opinions and issues. The Institute serves as a resource for students, scholars, politicians, and the general public.

Derek Dufresne, general consultant from the Russell Prescott campaign released the following statement on the poll.

“These numbers really aren’t surprising at all. Russell hasn’t even had the opportunity to introduce himself to the 1st Congressional District yet. He hasn’t run a single ad on broadcast TV. The fact of the matter is, while Russell has been earning the support of fellow Republicans in a contested primary, Chris Pappas has been able to take his public makeover campaign to the airwaves untouched. Once we have an opportunity to peel back the curtain and remind the voters of his abysmal record on the economy, spending, and the border, this race will tighten quickly.”

Joyce Craig campaign manager Craig Brown released the following statement regarding the poll.

“Joyce Craig has spent the last year traveling across the state and meeting with voters in every corner of New Hampshire to share her vision to improve Granite Staters’ lives and move our state forward. It is clear her vision is resonating with voters. At the same time, Granite Staters are remembering they cannot trust Kelly Ayotte, who has spent her career stripping women of their reproductive rights and cashing in on corporate boards – not working for Granite Staters. While Ayotte has spent millions of dollars on false and misleading attack ads, Joyce Craig is running to support every New Hampshire city and town and create new opportunities to succeed for everyone.”